Small Steps to Big Bets

Recently, after one of our forum members posted about an exceptionally long hand he’d tossed in the casino, a fellow board member and I started an off-forum discussion on pressing bets. I casually mentioned that if I had been at the table during that hand and the player had tossed his usual abundance of even numbers – I’d have been up around \$5000 on the four and ten and \$4200 on the six and eight. My correspondent replied that she was not that big of a bettor. Neither am I, I said. But it’s not that difficult to get there.

There are some steps I think a low roller should take during any hand to guarantee a profit before going crazy with press moves. Foremost among them is the regression. Let’s say you have a proven shooter that you have confidence enough in to start out with \$110 even numbers. Here’s how I would approach it. And for this demonstration we’re going to handle the six and eight differently from the four and ten. Here’s how:

First hit on the four (it could just as easily be the ten) – drop \$1 for the juice and lock up two green chips – AND tell the dealer to take down your \$25 ten and stack it on the four. The DICE have decided that the four is the outside number you’re going to ride on so go with the dice. At this point your \$50 four is essentially paid for. You have a couple of bucks vig at risk to win \$100. I’ll take that any day.

Here’s your press schedule from there: \$50 goes to \$100 and you lock up \$50. \$100 goes to \$200 and lock up \$100. \$200 goes to \$400 and lock up \$200. \$400 goes to \$800 and lock up \$400. \$800 goes to \$1600 and lock up \$800. \$1600 goes to \$3200 and lock up \$1600. \$3200 goes to \$5000 and lock up \$4400. In all of these cases the “lock up” will be less the vig, so you’ll spend a few dollars along the way, but to keep the numbers simple I’m excluding the juice from the tally. You’ll have a \$5000 bet on the Four up and working and you’ll have roughly \$10,750 in the rack. It took eight hits on the four to get there. Do you think that could happen in a sixty minute – eighty roll hand? But the important thing to remember is that after the second press you have almost \$100 profit in the rack off this number alone. And I’ll tell you right off the bat – this progression was more conservative than the one I typically play. I normally go from \$100 straight to \$250 – then \$500 – \$1000 – \$2500 – \$5000. But hey – I’m an action junky.

What about the six and eight? For them I like to do a classic \$30 six and eight one-hit regression to \$18 each – then run a modified six or eight progression that looks like this:

First hit on the six pays \$35 – Drop \$1 on the layout and tell the dealer to make your six and eight look like \$18 each. You’ll get \$60 change and have \$36 action with just \$1 of sevens exposure for the hand. Next hit on the six or eight pays \$21. Lock it up and you have a \$20 profit guaranteed for your six and eight series – even if the devil jumps up next. On the NEXT hit on the six or eight you drop \$3 and press the number that rolled to \$42. Let’s say it’s the six again. You’ll still have a \$17 win in the rack – and if the six rolls again it’s going to pay you \$50 for \$1. Let’s say that happens. Tell the dealer to make you six look like \$90. He’ll press your bet and hand you a dollar change. Be a George and toss it to the stick and tell him “hard six for the boys.” You still have a guaranteed \$17 win in the rack and your next hit will pay you \$105. BAM! The Emeril of dice strikes and the six jumps back hard. Dealers get paid. You get paid. Make that six look like \$180 and lock up \$15. You have \$32 in guaranteed profit in the rack. The six rolls again. What are you going to do? If you want to say “same bet” at anywhere along this trek – that is absolutely the correct thing to do. If you are willing to risk most of your guarantee from the six – pick up \$30 from your rack and wait for it to roll again. Because we’re going from \$180 to \$420 on it. Suddenly we’re playing with the big boys. Next hit pays \$500 for \$10. Reap the wards of your gutsy play and press it to \$600, locking up \$310. You next hit pays \$700 and you press to \$1200. Now it’s just like your running your \$12 six and eight press scheme you’re always playing – you’re just adding a couple of zeros to it.

Does it work this way in real life? Rarely. So don’t be afraid to take a second regression or say the magic words “bring me down” if you start feeling antsy about having too much money on the table.

Just remember – great reward often involves great risk.